New Keystone Poll Results - Santorum in Trouble

The results of a new Keystone Poll (conducted at my institution, Franklin & Marshall College) have just been released and they suggest that Sen. Rick Santorum is vulnerable. He's in a dead-heat with State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. (D) - Casey 44%, Santorum 43%. Santorum's favorable rating is 39% (26% not favorable) and Casey's is 33% (10% not favorable).

If Casey is well-funded, as I suspect he will be, this might end up the most closely watched Senate race in 2006.

For PA readers - Gov. Rendell leads the three potential Republican nominees by fairly significant margins - St. Sen. Piccola (53-23), former Lt. Gov. Scranton (47-37) and former Steeler wide receiver Lynn Swann (59-29). None of these GOP candidates have much name recognition yet (including Swann, who, despite being a Hall of Famer, is unknown by 63% of respondents). Plus, Rendell's job approval isn't great (39%), though his favorables are okay (48%). This one could get tight too, but as my colleagues at the Center for Opinion Research point out in the poll summary, "No sitting Pennsylvania governor has lost a re-election campaign since the state’s constitution was amended to allow for successive gubernatorial terms."