Labour in Trouble

Labour's lead in the upcoming (May) elections in Britain is shrinking fast. A new Guardian/ICM poll gives Tony Blair's party a mere 3 point advantage over the Conservatives (37% to 34%).

I wouldn't want to overstate the lessons Democrats could take from this, because Blair's support for the war in Iraq (among other things) muddles easy analysis. But one thing is clear - in fully-developed, modern party systems (i.e., those that are "frozen"), major parties don't stay down for long. Not long ago, commentators in Britain were writing the obituary of the Conservatives. Even a former Vice-Chair of the party warned that Conservatives were in danger of being overtaken by the Liberal Democrats as the main opposition party. Now, they may be a little more than two months from returning to power.

Take heart Democrats!